2024: Boom in global trade, likely to reach $33 trillion, but uncertainties too

The UN agency on Thursday released its new analysis called 'Global Trade Update', according to which there has been a surge in global trade. In the year 2024, it can reach 33 thousand billion dollars (33 trillion), which will be the highest level till date. This shows an increase of one trillion dollars as compared to 2023. A major reason for this 3.3 percent annual growth is the 7 percent growth recorded in the service trade sector, which has contributed 500 billion dollars. But trade in goods proved to be slow this year and grew by only 2 percent. It has declined after reaching its highest level in 2022. In the third quarter of 2024, there is stability in demand and better business conditions. As a result of the environment, the pace of trade in developed countries was faster than that of developing countries. Imports by developed countries increased by 3 percent and exports increased by 2 percent. Goods and services exports in Japan, merchandise imports and exports in the United States, and services trade in the European Union increased, while developing countries struggled during this period. Trade among developing countries reversed past trends and declined by 1 percent. However, in terms of annual performance, trade among developing countries remained positive and grew at a pace of 3 percent. In the third quarter of 2024, China's goods imports and exports, services imports declined, but services exports increased. Continued to grow. Service imports also continued to increase. There has been a decline in goods import and export of goods in India, but there has been an increase in service import and export. Trade in the East Asia region is stagnant – there was no increase in imports while exports grew by only 1 percent in the quarter. After hitting new highs in 2022, global trade declined by 3 percent in 2023 and is set to decline to Had reached 31 trillion. One of the main reasons for this was the decline in demand in developed economies and the weakness in trade in East Asia and Latin America. Strength has been seen in the international communication and technology and apparel sectors, while a decline has been recorded in the auto sector. Trade in communications equipment grew 13 percent in the quarter, while imports and exports of workplace equipment jumped 13 percent. There has been a growth of 14 percent in the apparel sector in this quarter. The demand for road vehicles has decreased, there has been a decline in energy trade, import-export of metals and textile trade has also decreased. Uncertainties of 2025 Uncertainties are looming in the business sector next year. , a major reason for which are potential changes in US trade policies that could disrupt global value chains and impact important trading partners. The effects of the US taking tough measures, including tariffs, could be felt in many other industries and economies, and the fear of retaliatory measures would deepen. There will also be a risk of increased uncertainty, and a weakening of trade, investment and economic growth. The biggest impact of changes in US trade policies will be on those countries which have a trade surplus with the US, that is, their exports to the US The level of exports made is higher than the imports made from the US. There is a possibility of impact on China, India, European Union and Vietnam. But Canada, Japan, Mexico and the Republic of Korea may also be affected. The UN agency has urged developing countries to adopt policies that strengthen trade diversification and invest in key sectors to reduce risks. .


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